So over the last couple of days I have been reading up on other bloggers sites, listening to pod casts and the patch 4.2 notes.
Now from what information is out there most people are tipping patch 4.2 for the end of June and telling people to stockpile materials now while there cheap, the likes of Elementium Ore, various Herbs, Truegold, Volatiles, Savage Leather, Pristine Hides, and Dragonscales.
Now generally stockpiling materials ready for when patches drop is a good idea and I certainly wouldn’t advise against it. The reasons for this are two fold Blizzard when it drops patches generally breaks the bots that are around farming herbs and ores, so these materials go in to short supply for a short while forcing prices to rise, before the bots get back working.
Secondly when new gear is introduced or recipes, people want to have the new gear first and generally the first to market gets to set the price and make hay in that market until others get the recipes etc.
Now what’s got me thinking is the new patterns that are going to be introduced. Some are from the daily area in Hyjal, some are Fireland raid drops including the Living Embers needed to make this gear, and the PVP gear is upgraded from the existing patterns.
So having read this post http://kaliope.crafterstome.com/2011/06/guardians-of-hyjal-vendors.html from Kaliope of www.crafterstome.com it appears that to get these patterns from the dailies you need to have done the dailies for 31 days. Now blizzard can change up the rate at which you get these tokens so things may be subject to change before patch 4.2 goes live.
The new PVP gear will see a spike in demand as the new arena season starts then slowly start dropping off as players get geared up until they start working on alts.
The patterns that are presumed to drop from the Firelands raid will probably take a few weeks to start dripping in to the economy. As apart from world leading raid guilds I can’t see many bosses being downed in the first week or so, therefore their will be minimal shots at the recipes dropping. Unless Blizzard messes up with the loot tables and they drop off trash easy, which was like what happened when ZA/ZG first appeared and the BOE epic ilvl353 gear flooded the auction house. Another thing to consider is the first wave of patterns may go to the raiders first so this will delay them getting on the open market longer.
The patterns that are thought to drop from the Firelands raid also need a material called Living Embers so far it is known this drops from raid bosses but I have scene no where that it can be bought from vendors for Valor or Justice points although I think this may be added at a later date for around 1k to 1.5k per ember.
So from what I can see I think the ore will have several uses ie gems for new gear upgrades, Ebonsteel belt buckles for new waists, the new blacksmith made PVP gear which will also take volatiles. These will be useful for leatherworkers and tailors too alongside the leather, scales and cloth. Herbs will see use in flasks and potions they will see an increase in sales for these as guilds or pug groups depending on a realms attempts to break in to the new raid tier.
Now one of the things I don’t see having an increase in sales or need straight away is Truegold, as the new recipes will take just over 4 weeks to acquire. Now what this means is by the time, these recipes start appearing it is more than likely the bots will be back on the servers so the prices of the volatiles and ores will have spiked and fallen back down to pre patch levels.
So before you go overboard with stockpiling goods based on what bloggers are tipping maybe its worth taking a step back and having a look at what your likely to sell, and how your economy may work dependant on your realms play style. I see sales being up and down as materials rise and fall before bottoming out over the summer break
I think with this patch we may see a series of spikes of gear and accessories, enchants being sold. So first wave will be PVP gear and gems, enchants followed by the new weapons bags etc from hyjal daily vendors and lastly the BOE epic raid patterns.
As always when patches drop in WOW things are subject to change and even with all the data mining info we have and past experiences of patches, no one is truly sure of what will happen till the patch finally arrives.